The Wave of Regimes
We share an interesting article by Maurizio Ferrera published on the Corriere della Sera website on 27 April 2022:
The confrontation between democracies and authoritarian regimes is the challenge of this century. Unfortunately, the balance of the last fifteen years is negative. The share of the world's population living in free regimes has fallen from 46% to 20%, while that in authoritarian regimes has risen from 36% to 39% (Freedom House data). The rest live in only partly free countries. 2021 began with the assault on the US Congress by Trump's followers and continued with military coups in Myanmar, Sudan, Mali and Guinea; democracy was effectively suspended in Nicaragua and Tunisia. Last 24 February the authoritarian wave hit Europe: this too is why it is important to help Zelensky's Ukraine resist Putin's aggression.
We must acknowledge that democracy worldwide is in recession and accept two unpleasant facts. First: the union of the rule of law and representative government is a fragile compound, especially in its formative phase. The seed of liberal democracy sprouts with difficulty. Second: authoritarian regimes are terrified of this seed, and their leaders have no qualms about resorting to violence (even brute force) to prevent it from taking root (as happened in Ukraine).
War is the most terrible instrument for stifling democracy, but it is not the only one. Authoritarian regimes also have more insidious weapons: terrorist attacks and cyber sabotage, manipulation of information, covert funding of anti-system forces (such as the loans to Le Pen), even migrants used as 'human bombs', as Belarus tried to do against Poland.
NATO's umbrella protects Europe militarily. But open societies remain vulnerable to other kinds of aggression. In the 'old' EU countries, seventy years of peace and stability have almost wiped out the perception of the risk of war, that is, the possibility of armed aggression on one's borders.
Apart from terrorist acts, the other forms of threat are barely visible, as tend to be the countermeasures. What sometimes leaks out (a thwarted attack, a stream of fake news orchestrated by a foreign power and unmasked) is only the tip of an iceberg; few know there is an enormous submerged part.
Moreover, democratic public opinion is impatient and easily distracted. At the start of the war, sympathy and willingness to help prevailed towards Ukrainians. As time passed, a certain intolerance arose for a conflict that risks being long and for Zelensky's requests for weapons. According to an Ipsos poll in early April, between 20% and 30% of European citizens think Ukraine's problems are not their concern (the figure for Italy is 35%); the majority is unwilling to bear higher bills to deprive Russia of resources.
For many, pacifism is a convinced choice based on principles. For others (more numerous) it is an unreflective response, an apparently 'noble' way to avoid facing responsibilities and to preserve a quiet life. There is also excessive trust and expectation in words, in 'negotiations'. Pacified, democratic societies resolve disagreements through free discussion and voting. An incomparable achievement, but one that can cloud the lenses through which we observe and judge international relations and what happens in authoritarian regimes. Warmongers have little interest in negotiating: today this is the obstacle, not the weakness or incapacity of European governments.
To counter the internal vulnerability of democracies, experts propose adopting national security strategies that involve and raise the awareness of all citizens, starting with the youngest (the so-called 'whole society approach'). The French government, for example, has launched a programme for students: four weeks of training to learn how to respond to crisis situations. Germany has established a form of civil service called 'a year dedicated to your country': a mix of social volunteering and basic civil-defence training. Last February Sweden opened a national Psychological Defence Agency with a twofold function: to identify flows of public disinformation and opinion manipulation, and to train citizens to recognise fake news and the various forms of threat to the country's security.
In his speech on 25 April in Acerra, President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella recalled that in Italy freedom was won through armed resistance. And he urged Italians not to forget Ukraine. Wars can end in many ways, but only some allow the survival of democracy. It is this kind of peace that we must build today in Ukraine. And that we must learn to defend actively at home too.
